Objective: This analysis quantified and assessed the projected workforce of psychiatrists in the United States through 2050 on the basis of population data.
Methods: With use of data from the Association of American Medical Colleges (2000-2015), American Board of Psychiatry and Neurology (2000-2015), and U.S. Census Bureau (2000-2050), the psychiatrist workforce was projected through 2050. Two established psychiatrist-to-population ratios were used to determine the estimated demand for psychiatrists and potential shortages.
Results: The psychiatrist workforce will contract through 2024 to a projected low of 38,821, which is equal to a shortage of between 14,280 and 31,091 psychiatrists, depending on the psychiatrist-to-population ratio used. A slow expansion will begin in 2025. By 2050, the workforce of psychiatrists will range from a shortage of 17,705 psychiatrists to a surplus of 3,428.
Conclusions: Because of steady population growth and the retirement of more than half the current workforce, the psychiatrist workforce will continue to contract through 2024 if no interventions are implemented, leading to a significant shortage of psychiatrists. Despite an expected workforce expansion beginning in 2025, it is unclear whether the shortage will completely resolve by 2050. Future research should focus on developing strategies to address this quantified shortage in an effort to curb the worsening shortage through 2024 and over the coming decades.
Keywords: Manpower utilization; Psychiatric residencies; Public policy issues; Public-sector psychiatry; Research/service delivery; workforce.